By Jamie Kania
It may be possible that human influence is contributing to the record-setting number of hurricanes that are slamming the United States this season. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml
Researchers are divided on what is causing the increase in number and intensity of the storms. There is no one straightforward answer for the cause. Some point to global warming, while others blame the natural cycles in sea surface temperatures. http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/050831_hurricane_freq.html
Stephen Vermette, associate professor in the geography and planning department at Buffalo State College, believes that the verdict is still out as to whether the increased number of hurricanes is due to global warming.
It appears that the frequency of hurricanes follow a 20 to 30 year cycle of increasing then decreasing numbers, he said. This is currently a period of increased hurricane numbers. Over the last 100 years, there has not been a strong trend showing an increase in hurricane frequency.
David Orr, environmental professor and chair at Oberlin College, addressed issues he thinks are in direct relation to the increase in a lecture given at the University at Buffalo.
“Things have causes and these things are made worse when causation is ignored,” Orr said. “Americans have the wherewithal to create ecological stability, but don’t take advantage of it.”
The U.S. government, media and citizens have failed to address these issues, he said.
There is nothing natural about the devastation these natural disasters are causing, he said. Natural barriers in the ocean such as mangroves and dead zones are being sacrificed for U.S. commercial fishing and protein factories. The buffers that should protect the land from the sea are being demolished, which is why the devastation is so unnatural, Orr said.
There has been a huge increase in the number, intensity and severity of class four and five storms because the temperature of seawater continues to increase. The Caribbean is 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher this year than last year, he said. Hurricanes pick up more intensity over warm water, so the intensity of the storms will continue to increase.
“We’ve known about climate change for a long time but we chose to ignore it,” Orr said. http://www.oberlin.edu/history/GJK/H258S2000/Orr.html
About 150,000 people are killed each year due to climate driven extremes. Global warming is amplifying natural events, he said.
Vermette agrees the continual increase in ocean temperatures could lead to a greater frequency of hurricanes in the future.
Although the 1933 record for named Atlantic tropical storms was broken this year, there is not one simple answer but many complex issues that may be contributing factors.
“Whatever the cause some interesting science lies ahead,” Vermette said.
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Jamie Kania can be reached at kanijm00@buffalostate.edu
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